Brazil Presidential Election

As of September 8, 2026 at 07:45 UTC, Renan Santos has the highest implied probability at 91%.

OUTCOMES

HISTORY

MOVEMENT

The implied probability rose 2 percentage points over 24 hours.

INSIGHTS

U-Score: 54 · Methodology

• medium

  Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.

  How we measure this

LIQUIDITY

Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 789.7K.

Order book liquidity methodology

RESOLUTION

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Source: polymarket-gamma

Resolution archives methodology

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