Presidential Election Winner 2028
As of September 8, 2026 at 07:44 UTC, Jamie Dimon has the highest implied probability at 100%.
OUTCOMES
| Provider | Outcome | Implied | 24h vol | Liquidity | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | JD Vance | 81% | 14.4K | 14.4K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:43 UTC |
| Polymarket | Gavin Newsom | 16% | 19K | 19K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:43 UTC |
| Polymarket | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 5% | 18K | 18K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:43 UTC |
| Polymarket | Pete Buttigieg | 2% | 13.5K | 13.5K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:43 UTC |
| Polymarket | Josh Shapiro | 3% | 44.4K | 44.4K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:43 UTC |
HISTORY
| Time (UTC) | Series | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026, 11:59 UTC | polymarket-561244 | 99% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 14:16 UTC | polymarket-561244 | 99% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 17:07 UTC | polymarket-561244 | 60% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 20:02 UTC | polymarket-561244 | 60% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 22:14 UTC | polymarket-561244 | 60% |
| Sep 4, 2026, 00:08 UTC | polymarket-561244 | 60% |
| Sep 4, 2026, 01:53 UTC |
MOVEMENT
The implied probability rose 0.4 percentage points over 24 hours.
INSIGHTS
U-Score: 58 · Methodology
- high
Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.
How we measure this - high
Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.
How we measure this
LIQUIDITY
Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 2.9M.
RESOLUTION
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Source: polymarket-gamma
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