Prediction market probabilities
We treat the latest exchange-reported price as an implied probability only when it is timestamped, internally consistent, and tied to a known outcome structure.
What we show
Public market pages display the latest implied probability for the primary tracked outcome, together with the observation time and lifecycle state. We do not extrapolate missing prices or blend stale values with fresh ones without labeling the observation gap.
Data sources
Probabilities come from Insydr's normalized market snapshots for Polymarket and Kalshi events. When multiple child markets exist, the page highlights the highest-volume outcome for the event group while preserving the full outcome table in the snapshot payload.
Limits
A probability is a market price, not a forecast guarantee. Thin markets, wide spreads, or stale observations reduce confidence and may suppress indexing or public surfacing.