Iran leader end of 2026?
The retained snapshot contains inconsistent mutually exclusive probabilities. Verified odds and derived metrics are unavailable.
OUTCOMES
| Provider | Outcome | Implied | 24h vol | Liquidity | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | No Head of State | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Muhammad Mirbaqiri | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Sadegh Larijani | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mojtaba Khamenei | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Hassan Khomeini | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Reza Pahlavi | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Hassan Shariatmadari | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Maryam Rajavi | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Massoud Rajavi | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Seyed Hossein Mousavian | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Reza Pirzadeh | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Navid Shomali | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mustafa Hijri | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Ali Motahari | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mostafa Pourmohammadi | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Sadegh Mahsouli | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Masoud Pezeshkian | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Saeed Jalili | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Hassan Rouhani | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mohammad Khatami | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Other | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mohammad Pakpour | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | Alireza Arafi | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Ali Larijani | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | Abbas Araghchi | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Ahmad Vahidi | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mohsen Araki | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Nasir Hosseini | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Ali Asghar Hejazi | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 08:04 UTC |
| Polymarket | o | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | p | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | q | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | r | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | s | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | t | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | u | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | v | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | w | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | x | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | y | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | z | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | aa | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | ab | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | ac | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | ad | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | ae | — | — | — | Oct 26, 2026, 07:55 UTC |
MOVEMENT
This market does not yet have a full 24-hour history.
RESOLUTION
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Source: polymarket-gamma
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