Next French Presidential Election
Exchange observations verified at 2026-11-05T12:35:29.950Z. Among the displayed outcomes with verified prices, Marine Le Pen has the highest reported implied probability at 42.95%.
OUTCOMES
Dated exchange prices, shown without normalization. Polymarket uses the last traded price when its spread exceeds $0.10. Prices from separate contracts and trade times may not total 100%.
| Provider | Outcome | Exchange price | Spread (pp) | 24h vol | Liquidity | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Marine Le Pen | 42.95% | 0.10 | 65.5K | 779.9K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | David Lisnard | 16.05% | 0.10 | 99.1K | 653.7K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12.5% | 1.00 | 79K | 754.7K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Édouard Philippe | 11.5% | 1.00 | 20.6K | 636.4K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Christine Lagarde | 6.75% | 0.10 | 68.2K | 437.1K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Raphaël Glucksmann | 2.55% | 0.10 | 23.9K | 281.5K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Jordan Bardella | 2.15% | 0.10 | 18.5K | 217.7K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | François Hollande | 2.05% | 0.10 | 32.6K | 199.6K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Dominique de Villepin | 2% | 0.40 | 77.1K | 317.8K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Éric Zemmour | 0.75% | 0.10 | 26.8K | 369.2K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Gabriel Attal | 0.55% | 0.10 | 43.6K | 445.2K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Bruno Retailleau | 0.45% | 0.10 | 37.6K | 270.6K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | François Baroin | 0.25% | 0.10 | 53.4K | 123.2K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Sarah Knafo | 0.25% | 0.10 | 25.1K | 335K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Marion Maréchal | 0.2% | — | 17.6K | 363.1K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Sébastien Lecornu | 0.15% | 0.10 | 25.4K | 274.2K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Anasse Kazib | 0.1% | — | — | 288.6K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.1% | — | — | 113.9K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Carole Delga | 0.1% | — | — | 627.2K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Clémence Guetté | 0.1% | — | — | 639.4K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Clémentine Autain | 0.1% | — | — | 613.5K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Élisabeth Borne | 0.1% | — | — | 515.8K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Fabien Roussel | 0.1% | — | — | 516.7K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | François Asselineau | 0.1% | — | 50.1 | 387.3K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | François Bayrou | 0.1% | — | — | 630K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | François Ruffin | 0.1% | — | 3.6 | 369.8K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Gérald Darmanin | 0.1% | — | — | 372.4K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Jean Castex | 0.1% | — | — | 78.5K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Juan Branco | 0.1% | — | — | 122K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Karim Bouamrane | 0.1% | — | 2.4 | 982.2K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1% | — | — | 582.1K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Lucie Castets | 0.1% | — | — | 554.2K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Manuel Bompard | 0.1% | — | — | 182.8K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Marine Tondelier | 0.1% | — | 2.3 | 950.9K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mathilde Panot | 0.1% | — | — | 620.5K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Michel Barnier | 0.1% | — | — | 544.7K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Natacha Polony | 0.1% | — | — | 375.7K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.1% | — | — | 441.7K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Olivier Faure | 0.1% | — | — | 457.6K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Ségolène Royal | 0.1% | — | — | 138.1K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Sylvain Durif | 0.1% | — | — | 250.4K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Valérie Pécresse | 0.1% | — | — | 622.8K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Xavier Bertrand | 0.1% | — | 28.8K | 271.1K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.1% | — | 1K | 414.6K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
| Polymarket | Yannick Jadot | 0.1% | — | — | 552.5K | Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 UTC |
MOVEMENT
This market does not yet have a full 24-hour history.
LIQUIDITY
Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 19.7M. Average observed spread is 0.2 percentage points.
RESOLUTION
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Source: polymarket-gamma
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