Next French Presidential Election

As of September 21, 2026 at 12:28 UTC, Carole Delga has the highest implied probability at 99%.

OUTCOMES

HISTORY

MOVEMENT

The implied probability rose 0.1 percentage points over 24 hours.

INSIGHTS

U-Score: 57 · Methodology

• high

  Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.

  How we measure this
• high

  Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.

  How we measure this

LIQUIDITY

Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 1.6M.

Order book liquidity methodology

RESOLUTION

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Source: polymarket-gamma

Resolution archives methodology

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