Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
The retained snapshot contains inconsistent mutually exclusive probabilities. Verified odds and derived metrics are unavailable.
OUTCOMES
| Provider | Outcome | Implied | 24h vol | Liquidity | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | May 31 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:44 UTC |
| Polymarket | June 30 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:44 UTC |
| Polymarket | October 31 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | December 31 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | August 31 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:44 UTC |
| Polymarket | March 31, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | June 30, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | April 30, 2027 | — | — | — | Oct 20, 2026, 03:51 UTC |
| Polymarket | May 31, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | October 31, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 23, 2026, 03:42 UTC |
| Polymarket | July 31, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | September 30, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | December 31, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | August 31, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | November 30, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:54 UTC |
| Polymarket | January 31, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | February 28, 2027 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:55 UTC |
| Polymarket | November 30 | — | — | — | Sep 20, 2026, 13:56 UTC |
MOVEMENT
This market does not yet have a full 24-hour history.
RESOLUTION
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: polymarket-gamma
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