Los Angeles Mayoral Election
As of September 21, 2026 at 03:54 UTC, Rae Huang has the highest implied probability at 99%.
OUTCOMES
| Provider | Outcome | Implied | 24h vol | Liquidity | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Karen Bass | 36% | 9.6K | 9.6K | Sep 17, 2026, 16:53 UTC |
| Polymarket | Rick Caruso | 10% | 1.4K | 1.4K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
| Polymarket | Asaad Alnajjar | 10% | 4.2K | 4.2K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
| Polymarket | Gina Viola | 10% | 1.2K | 1.2K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
| Polymarket | Spencer Pratt | 73% | 26.2K | 26.2K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
| Polymarket | Austin Beutner | 10% | 1.4K | 1.4K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
| Polymarket | Lindsey Horvath | 10% | 4.6K | 4.6K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
| Polymarket | Monica Rodriguez | 10% | 4.5K | 4.5K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
| Polymarket | Rae Huang | 99% | 3.1K | 3.1K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
| Polymarket | Nithya Raman | 50% | 5 | 5 | Sep 21, 2026, 03:54 UTC |
| Polymarket | Adam Miller | 30% | 7.5K | 7.5K | Jun 25, 2026, 11:25 UTC |
HISTORY
| Time (UTC) | Series | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026, 16:26 UTC | polymarket-629030 | 60% |
| Sep 17, 2026, 16:26 UTC | polymarket-629030 | 59% |
| Sep 17, 2026, 16:26 UTC | polymarket-629030 | 59% |
| Sep 17, 2026, 16:26 UTC | polymarket-629030 | 60% |
| Sep 17, 2026, 16:27 UTC | polymarket-629030 | 41% |
| Sep 17, 2026, 16:27 UTC | polymarket-629030 | 59% |
| Sep 17, 2026, 16:28 UTC |
MOVEMENT
The implied probability rose 4 percentage points over 24 hours.
INSIGHTS
U-Score: 53 · Methodology
- high
Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.
How we measure this - high
Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.
How we measure this
LIQUIDITY
Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 63.8K.
RESOLUTION
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Source: polymarket-gamma
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