Iran leadership change by...?

As of September 8, 2026 at 07:57 UTC, May 31 has the highest implied probability at 94%.

OUTCOMES

HISTORY

MOVEMENT

The implied probability rose 1 percentage point over 24 hours.

INSIGHTS

U-Score: 56 · Methodology

• high

  Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.

  How we measure this
• high

  Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.

  How we measure this

LIQUIDITY

Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 760.1K.

Order book liquidity methodology

RESOLUTION

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Source: polymarket-gamma

Resolution archives methodology

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