Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
As of September 8, 2026 at 07:44 UTC, Tulsi Gabbard has the highest implied probability at 100%.
OUTCOMES
| Provider | Outcome | Implied | 24h vol | Liquidity | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Donald Trump | 2% | 33.7K | 33.7K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:44 UTC |
| Polymarket | J.D. Vance | 36% | 24.1K | 24.1K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:44 UTC |
| Polymarket | Marco Rubio | 24% | 19K | 19K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:44 UTC |
| Polymarket | Tulsi Gabbard | 100% | 26.7K | 26.7K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:44 UTC |
| Polymarket | Glenn Youngkin | 1% | 31.6K | 31.6K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:44 UTC |
HISTORY
| Time (UTC) | Series | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026, 11:59 UTC | polymarket-561976 | 80% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | polymarket-561976 | 80% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 17:09 UTC | polymarket-561976 | 80% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 20:13 UTC | polymarket-561976 | 60% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 22:16 UTC | polymarket-561976 | 80% |
| Sep 4, 2026, 00:09 UTC | polymarket-561976 | 80% |
| Sep 4, 2026, 01:53 UTC |
MOVEMENT
The implied probability rose 0.65 percentage points over 24 hours.
INSIGHTS
U-Score: 58 · Methodology
- high
Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.
How we measure this - high
Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.
How we measure this
LIQUIDITY
Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 2.1M.
RESOLUTION
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Source: polymarket-gamma
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