Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
As of September 8, 2026 at 09:13 UTC, Vinícius Júnior has the highest implied probability at 100%.
OUTCOMES
| Provider | Outcome | Implied | 24h vol | Liquidity | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Kylian Mbappé | 7% | 1.1K | 1.1K | Sep 8, 2026, 09:13 UTC |
| Polymarket | Erling Haaland | 99% | 424.5 | 424.5 | Sep 8, 2026, 07:45 UTC |
| Polymarket | Jude Bellingham | 30% | 1K | 1K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:45 UTC |
| Polymarket | Ousmane Dembélé | 24% | 1.5K | 1.5K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:45 UTC |
| Polymarket | Mohamed Salah | 20% | 15K | 15K | Sep 8, 2026, 07:45 UTC |
HISTORY
| Time (UTC) | Series | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026, 12:01 UTC | polymarket-608541 | 30% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 14:21 UTC | polymarket-608541 | 30% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 17:09 UTC | polymarket-608541 | 30% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 20:22 UTC | polymarket-608541 | 30% |
| Sep 3, 2026, 22:20 UTC | polymarket-608541 | 30% |
| Sep 4, 2026, 00:11 UTC | polymarket-608541 | 30% |
| Sep 4, 2026, 01:54 UTC |
MOVEMENT
The implied probability rose 2.65 percentage points over 24 hours.
INSIGHTS
U-Score: 57 · Methodology
- high
Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.
How we measure this - high
Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.
How we measure this
LIQUIDITY
Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 42K.
RESOLUTION
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Source: polymarket-gamma
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