Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? As of September 8, 2026 at 07:45 UTC, the tracked market price implies approximately 95%.

OUTCOMES

HISTORY

MOVEMENT

The implied probability was unchanged over 24 hours.

INSIGHTS

U-Score: 56 · Methodology

• high

  Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.

  How we measure this
• high

  Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.

  How we measure this

LIQUIDITY

Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 10.5K.

Order book liquidity methodology

RESOLUTION

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Source: polymarket-gamma

Resolution archives methodology

RELATED

• Republican…: Prediction Market Odds by Outcome | Insydrsame category
• Next Prime…: Prediction Market Odds by Outcome | Insydrsame category
• Ballon d'Or…: Prediction Market Odds by Outcome | Insydrsame category