Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

As of September 8, 2026 at 07:58 UTC, May 31 has the highest implied probability at 99%.

OUTCOMES

HISTORY

MOVEMENT

The implied probability rose 0.15 percentage points over 24 hours.

INSIGHTS

U-Score: 55 · Methodology

• high

  Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.

  How we measure this
• high

  Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.

  How we measure this

LIQUIDITY

Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 409.1K.

Order book liquidity methodology

RESOLUTION

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Source: polymarket-gamma

Resolution archives methodology

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