Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

As of September 8, 2026 at 07:45 UTC, Tarcisio de Frietas has the highest implied probability at 97%.

OUTCOMES

HISTORY

MOVEMENT

The implied probability rose 0.6 percentage points over 24 hours.

INSIGHTS

U-Score: 57 · Methodology

• high

  Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.

  How we measure this
• high

  Insydr U-Score is elevated versus this market's recent activity profile.

  How we measure this

LIQUIDITY

Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 4.3K.

Order book liquidity methodology

RESOLUTION

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Source: polymarket-gamma

Resolution archives methodology

RELATED

• Republican…: Prediction Market Odds by Outcome | Insydrsame category
• Next Prime…: Prediction Market Odds by Outcome | Insydrsame category
• Ballon d'Or…: Prediction Market Odds by Outcome | Insydrsame category