Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
As of August 16, 2026 at 14:50 UTC, Before 2027 has the highest implied probability at 21%.
OpenOtherCloses Aug 1, 2026, 14:00 UTCResolve window Aug 1, 2026, 14:00 UTCFinal outcome Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Aug 1, 2026?
OUTCOMES
| Provider | Outcome | Implied | 24h vol | Liquidity | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Before August | — | — | — | Aug 1, 2026, 14:21 UTC |
| Kalshi | Before December | — | — | — | Jul 20, 2026, 21:37 UTC |
| Kalshi | Before November | — | — | — | Jul 20, 2026, 21:37 UTC |
| Kalshi | Before October | — | — | — | Jul 20, 2026, 21:37 UTC |
| Kalshi | Before 2027 | 21% | 70.4K | 70.4K | Aug 16, 2026, 14:50 UTC |
| Kalshi |
MOVEMENT
The implied probability was unchanged over 24 hours.
INSIGHTS
U-Score: 24 · Methodology
LIQUIDITY
Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 70.4K.
RESOLUTION
Resolution follows the provider contract for this market.
Source: kalshi-public-api
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