How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

As of September 8, 2026 at 07:46 UTC, 5 (125 bps) has the highest implied probability at 100%.

OUTCOMES

HISTORY

MOVEMENT

The implied probability rose 0.2 percentage points over 24 hours.

INSIGHTS

U-Score: 48 · Methodology

• high

  Insydr detected unusually high volume relative to this market's recent baseline.

  How we measure this

LIQUIDITY

Observed liquidity across tracked outcomes is about 467.3K.

Order book liquidity methodology

RESOLUTION

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Source: polymarket-gamma

Resolution archives methodology