COMPARISON
Order book vs last price on prediction markets
Last price is a trade print; order-book mid/top reflects resting liquidity. Insydr surfaces both concepts carefully so readers do not confuse sparse prints with deep books.
Last reviewed SEP 10, 2026Updated SEP 10, 2026Reviewer Product
Comparison table
| Signal | What it reflects | Failure mode | Better when |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last price | Most recent fill | Stale or tiny prints | Confirming that a trade happened |
| Top of book | Best bid/ask resting | Spoofing / thin books | Short-horizon quote checks |
| Depth / imbalance | Size near touch | Sparse levels | Liquidity / move-cost context |
| Implied probability (Insydr) | Snapshot primary outcome | Missing observation time | Public page citation with timestamp |
Why the distinction matters
A last trade can be stale or tiny. Top-of-book and depth summarize resting interest. Mixing them produces misleading “probability” stories.
On Insydr pages
Implied primary probabilities come from the snapshot builder's defined primary outcome. Liquidity methodology pages explain how depth and imbalance are summarized. Always prefer the labeled observation time over screenshots without timestamps.
Practical rule
Use last price to understand what traded; use book metrics to understand what is offered. Do not average them into a single unofficial “true odds” number.